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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Genoa edge out Pisa 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Genoa beat Pisa 1-2 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 0.85 xG and Genoa 1.20 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Genoa outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.65 / defence 1.17 against Genoa attack 0.89 / defence 1.05, drawn from 32/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pisa 26% | Draw 30% | Genoa 44%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 51%, Genoa 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pisa's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Genoa's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pisa 1.31 PPG, Genoa 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genoa win broke the near-deadlock. Pisa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights