Pisa 0-0 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pisa vs Fiorentina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pisa host Fiorentina at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Serie A, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 September 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Pisa have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pisa have posted 5W 1D 4L at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fiorentina stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Fiorentina have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fiorentina's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Pisa) versus 1.40 (Fiorentina). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Pisa in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Fiorentina in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 55% versus Fiorentina 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 52% | Fiorentina 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 0.71 xG and Fiorentina 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.634 / defence 1.082 | Fiorentina attack 0.919 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.183 / away 1.134. Pisa's attack strength of 0.634 is below the league average — the 0.71 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Pisa games / 42 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 22% | Draw 34% | Fiorentina 45%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 4.55 | Draw 2.94 | Fiorentina 2.22. Fiorentina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Pisa's lower xG of 0.71 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fiorentina at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fiorentina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.83 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. This conflicts with form data: Pisa 50% | Fiorentina 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Sep 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 22% | Draw 34% | Fiorentina 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 35% | xG Pisa 0.71 / Fiorentina 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.634 / def 1.082 | Fiorentina attack 0.919 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.183 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Fiorentina xG
35%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Fiorentina kick off?
Pisa vs Fiorentina kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 28 September 2025 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Fiorentina?
Pisa 0 - 0 Fiorentina.
Where is Pisa vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Fiorentina part of?
Pisa vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 22% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 45% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Pisa and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Fiorentina?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pisa and Fiorentina in?
Pisa (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Fiorentina (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Pisa's attacking strength (0.63x league average) is weighed against Fiorentina's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.71. The same calculation in reverse, Fiorentina's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.4%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
22%
4.58
34%
2.97
45%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Pisa xG
Total xG
1.83
1.13
Fiorentina xG
4.58
22%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
2.25
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.83
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
7%
14.15
22%
4.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0 | 18.0 | 10.2 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.7 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Pisa and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Pisa and 1.13 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pisa come into this having played 42 games, going 22W 9D 11L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Fiorentina sit at 1.60 PPG from 42 outings (19W 10D 13L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Fiorentina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pisa on 1.79 PPG, Fiorentina on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Pisa's home form reads 13W 4D 4L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.05 PPG return.
Away from home, Fiorentina have taken 1.29 points per game from 21 outings (7W 6D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pisa are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.50 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Early Season
Fiorentina
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 22W 9D 11L in their last 42 games (1.79 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 19W 10D 13L in their last 42 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Fiorentina away?
Pisa's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 2.05 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Pisa or Fiorentina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Fiorentina in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pisa and Fiorentina runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pisa
1
Draws
1
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Fiorentina?
From 2 meetings on record, Pisa have won 0, Fiorentina have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Fiorentina 1-0 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 57%, Fiorentina 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Pisa) and 52% (Fiorentina). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Fiorentina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Pisa's games and 57% of Fiorentina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pisa vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Pisa's matches and 52% of Fiorentina's.
Do Pisa and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Pisa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 5, as Pisa and Fiorentina drew 0-0 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 0.71 xG and Fiorentina 1.13 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fiorentina landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.63 / defence 1.08 against Fiorentina attack 0.92 / defence 0.94, drawn from 4/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 22% | Draw 34% | Fiorentina 45%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 52%, Fiorentina 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fiorentina's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.79 PPG, Fiorentina 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.