🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pisa vs Fiorentina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Pisa host Fiorentina at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Serie A, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 September 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie A games this season, Pisa have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Pisa have posted 5W 1D 4L at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Fiorentina stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Fiorentina have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Fiorentina's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Pisa) versus 1.40 (Fiorentina). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Trading Patterns

Pisa in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).

Fiorentina in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 55% versus Fiorentina 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 52% | Fiorentina 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 0.71 xG and Fiorentina 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.634 / defence 1.082 | Fiorentina attack 0.919 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.183 / away 1.134. Pisa's attack strength of 0.634 is below the league average — the 0.71 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Pisa games / 42 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Pisa 22% | Draw 34% | Fiorentina 45%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 4.55 | Draw 2.94 | Fiorentina 2.22. Fiorentina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Pisa's lower xG of 0.71 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Fiorentina at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fiorentina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 1.83 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. This conflicts with form data: Pisa 50% | Fiorentina 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights