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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Como run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Pisa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Como beat Pisa 0-3 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 0.48 xG and Como 1.34 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Como outscored their 1.34 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.45 / defence 1.04 against Como attack 1.16 / defence 0.90, drawn from 18/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pisa 13% | Draw 28% | Como 58%, with Como to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 47%, Como 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pisa's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Como's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pisa 1.55 PPG, Como 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Como win broke the near-deadlock. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Como (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights