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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Pisa cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cagliari.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pisa beat Cagliari 3-1 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 0.78 xG and Cagliari 1.25 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Pisa beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.54 / defence 1.17 against Cagliari attack 0.91 / defence 1.12, drawn from 28/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pisa 23% | Draw 29% | Cagliari 47%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Pisa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 50%, Cagliari 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pisa's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Cagliari's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pisa 1.35 PPG, Cagliari 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pisa win broke the near-deadlock. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm. Cagliari (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights