Parma vs Venezia – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Parma at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Parma vs Venezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Venezia make the trip to Stadio Ennio Tardini to face Parma in Serie A, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Sunday 10 January 2027 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Parma (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Venezia's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 0D 9L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Venezia have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Parma's favour (0.80 vs 0.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Parma 3W, Venezia 1W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Parma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Venezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 40% versus Venezia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 35% | Venezia 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.11 xG and Venezia 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.635 / defence 0.954 | Venezia attack 0.612 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.522 / away 1.503. Parma's attack strength of 0.635 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 48 Parma games / 10 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 41% | Draw 31% | Venezia 29%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Venezia 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Parma as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Parma if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Parma 40% | Venezia 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Venezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Jan 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 41% | Draw 31% | Venezia 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Parma 1.11 / Venezia 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.635 / def 0.954 | Venezia attack 0.612 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.522 / away 1.503 • Poisson stance: Parma (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Parma xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Venezia xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Venezia kick off?
Parma vs Venezia is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 10 January 2027 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
Where is Parma vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Venezia part of?
Parma vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 41% chance of winning, Venezia a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Parma and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Venezia?
Record (6 meetings): Parma 3W | Draws 2 | Venezia 1W.
What form are Parma and Venezia in?
Parma (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Venezia (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Parma's attack at 0.64x the league average against Venezia's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Venezia's attack (0.61x) against Parma's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
41%
2.46
31%
3.26
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Parma xG
Total xG
1.99
0.88
Venezia xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
17%
5.91
9%
10.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 12.0 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Parma and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Parma and 0.88 for Venezia, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 48 outings, Parma have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 13W 14D 21L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Venezia's form line: 25W 10D 13L from 48 games, 1.77 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Venezia are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Parma.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Parma have posted 1.08 PPG from 24 outings (6W 8D 10L).
On the road, Venezia have gone 7W 10D 7L from 24 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.77 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Venezia's season.
Attack vs Defence
Parma are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.73 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Venezia in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Blended
Venezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Venezia in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 13W 14D 21L in their last 48 games (1.10 PPG), while Venezia have gone 25W 10D 13L in their last 48 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Venezia away?
Venezia's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.08 PPG; Venezia away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Parma or Venezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Venezia in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Parma have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Venezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Parma
2
Draws
1
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Venezia?
From 6 meetings on record, Parma have won 3, Venezia have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2025, when Parma 1-1 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Venezia?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Parma see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 46%, Venezia 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Parma) and 50% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Parma have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Parma's recent matches and 62% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Parma vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Parma's recent games and 50% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Venezia tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Venezia in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.