Parma 0-0 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Udinese at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Parma vs Udinese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 9 as Parma welcome Udinese to Ennio Tardini. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 28 October 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Parma have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Parma at Ennio Tardini this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Parma are significantly better at Ennio Tardini than their overall form suggests.
Udinese — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Udinese away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Parma) versus 0.40 (Udinese). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Parma, 3 for Udinese and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Parma winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Parma in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Udinese in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 41% versus Udinese 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 35% | Udinese 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.32 xG and Udinese 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.727 / defence 1.102 | Udinese attack 1.160 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.449. Parma's attack strength of 0.727 is below the league average — the 1.32 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Udinese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.217 — this is suppressing Parma's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Parma games / 46 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 27% | Draw 23% | Udinese 50%. Fair-value odds: Parma 3.70 | Draw 4.35 | Udinese 2.00. Udinese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.32 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral: Parma 50% | Udinese 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 27% | Draw 23% | Udinese 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Parma 1.32 / Udinese 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.727 / def 1.102 | Udinese attack 1.160 / def 1.217 | league avg home 1.492 / away 1.449 • Poisson stance: Udinese (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.85
Udinese xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Udinese kick off?
Parma vs Udinese kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 28 October 2026 at Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Udinese?
Parma 0 - 0 Udinese.
Where is Parma vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Udinese part of?
Parma vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 27% chance of winning, Udinese a 50% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Parma and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Udinese?
Record (4 meetings): Parma 1W | Draws 0 | Udinese 3W.
What form are Parma and Udinese in?
Parma (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Udinese (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Parma's attack at 0.73x the league average against Udinese's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 1.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
27%
3.66
23%
4.41
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Parma xG
Total xG
3.17
1.85
Udinese xG
3.66
27%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
16%
6.38
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
4%
23.35
13%
7.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.8 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Parma and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Parma and 1.85 for Udinese, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, Parma have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 12W 13D 21L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Udinese's form line: 15W 9D 22L from 46 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Parma on 1.07 PPG, Udinese on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Parma have posted 1.09 PPG from 22 outings (6W 6D 10L).
On the road, Udinese have gone 9W 3D 10L from 22 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Parma are averaging 0.72 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.17 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Udinese in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 12W 13D 21L in their last 46 games (1.07 PPG), while Udinese have gone 15W 9D 22L in their last 46 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Udinese away?
Udinese's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.09 PPG; Udinese away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 28 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Parma's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Parma
1
Draws
3
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Udinese?
From 5 meetings on record, Parma have won 1, Udinese have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 28 October 2026, when Parma 0-0 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Udinese?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Parma see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 46%, Udinese 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Parma) and 59% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Parma have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Parma's recent matches and 59% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Parma vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Parma's recent games and 59% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Udinese tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Udinese in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Parma's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 9, as Parma and Udinese drew 0-0 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.32 xG and Udinese 1.85 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Parma fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Udinese landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.73 / defence 1.10 against Udinese attack 1.16 / defence 1.22, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 27% | Draw 23% | Udinese 50%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 35%, Udinese 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Udinese's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Parma 1.07 PPG, Udinese 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.