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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Parma and Torino share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 28, as Parma and Torino drew 2-2 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.19 xG and Torino 1.64 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Parma beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.92 / defence 1.26 against Torino attack 1.07 / defence 1.00, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Parma 26% | Draw 28% | Torino 46%, with Torino to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 54%, Torino 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Parma's trading profile (65 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Torino's trading profile (65 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Parma 1.52 PPG, Torino 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Torino (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights