Parma vs Sassuolo – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Parma at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Parma vs Sassuolo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Sassuolo travel to Stadio Ennio Tardini to take on Parma. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 February 2027, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Parma have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Parma have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stadio Ennio Tardini — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sassuolo stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.70. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sassuolo's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Parma 0.80 PPG, Sassuolo 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Parma, 0 for Sassuolo and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2026, ended 1–0 with Parma winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Parma in-play tendencies (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Sassuolo in-play tendencies (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 41% versus Sassuolo 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 37% | Sassuolo 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.24 xG and Sassuolo 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.647 / defence 0.997 | Sassuolo attack 0.790 / defence 1.258. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.469. Parma's attack strength of 0.647 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sassuolo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.258 — this is suppressing Parma's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Parma games / 49 Sassuolo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 38% | Draw 28% | Sassuolo 34%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Sassuolo 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Parma as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Parma 50% | Sassuolo 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Feb 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 38% | Draw 28% | Sassuolo 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Parma 1.24 / Sassuolo 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.647 / def 0.997 | Sassuolo attack 0.790 / def 1.258 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.469 • Poisson stance: Parma (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Sassuolo xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Sassuolo kick off?
Parma vs Sassuolo is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 28 February 2027 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
Where is Parma vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Sassuolo part of?
Parma vs Sassuolo is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 38% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Parma and Sassuolo will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Sassuolo?
Record (2 meetings): Parma 1W | Draws 1 | Sassuolo 0W.
What form are Parma and Sassuolo in?
Parma (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Sassuolo (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Parma's attack rating (0.65) and Sassuolo's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sassuolo's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
38%
2.62
28%
3.62
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Parma xG
Total xG
2.40
1.16
Sassuolo xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
12%
8.33
10%
10.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.5 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.0 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Parma and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Parma and 1.16 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Sassuolo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, Parma have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 13W 14D 22L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sassuolo's form line: 16W 9D 24L from 49 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Parma on 1.08 PPG, Sassuolo on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Parma have posted 1.04 PPG from 25 outings (6W 8D 11L).
On the road, Sassuolo have gone 5W 6D 14L from 25 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Parma are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 1.27 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Blended
Sassuolo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 13W 14D 22L in their last 49 games (1.08 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 16W 9D 24L in their last 49 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Sassuolo away?
Parma's home record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.04 PPG; Sassuolo away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Parma or Sassuolo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sassuolo in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Parma and Sassuolo runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Parma
1
Draws
0
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Sassuolo?
From 2 meetings on record, Parma have won 1, Sassuolo have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Sassuolo last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Parma 1-0 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Sassuolo?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Parma see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 48%, Sassuolo 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Parma) and 60% (Sassuolo).
On the defensive side: Parma have failed to score in 40% of games; Sassuolo in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Sassuolo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Parma's recent matches and 60% of Sassuolo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Parma vs Sassuolo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Parma's recent games and 60% of Sassuolo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Sassuolo tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Sassuolo in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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