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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 6

Kick-off

Sat 4 Oct 2025

14:00

Venue

Stadio Ennio Tardini

Competition

Serie A

Italy

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Parma Win

50%

Parma

2.00

27%

Draw

3.65

23%

Lecce

4.42

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

13.3%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

12.3%

Draw

2 – 0

10.0%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.50

Parma xG

Total xG

2.42

0.92

Lecce xG

50%
27%
23%
ParmaDrawLecce

2.00

50%

Home win

3.65

27%

Draw

4.42

23%

Away win

Goals Markets

70%

Over 1.5

1.43

30%

Under 1.5

3.33

44%

Over 2.5

2.27

56%

Under 2.5

1.79

23%

Over 3.5

4.35

77%

Under 3.5

1.30

10%

Over 4.5

10.00

90%

Under 4.5

1.11

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

47%

BTTS Yes

2.11

53%

BTTS No

1.90

Clean Sheet

40%

Parma

2.51

22%

Lecce

4.46

Win to Nil

20%

Parma

5.03

5%

Lecce

19.72

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.9 8.2 3.8 1.2 0.3
1 13.3 12.3 5.7 1.7 0.4 0.1
2 10.0 9.2 4.2 1.3 0.3 0.1
3 5.0 4.6 2.1 0.6 0.1
4 1.9 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.1
5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.496
λ Away (xG) 0.922
Total xG 2.418
League avg home goals 1.182
League avg away goals 1.144
Parma attack strength 1.063
Parma defence strength 0.951
Lecce attack strength 0.848
Lecce defence strength 1.191
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 43 / 43