🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Inter cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Parma.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Inter beat Parma 0-2 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 0.82 xG and Inter 1.47 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Parma fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.79 / defence 1.03 against Inter attack 1.23 / defence 0.90, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Parma 21% | Draw 27% | Inter 52%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 47%, Inter 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Parma's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Inter's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward. Inter (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights