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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bologna cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Parma.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bologna beat Parma 1-3 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.08 xG and Bologna 1.00 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Bologna outscored their 1.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.86 / defence 0.90 against Bologna attack 1.06 / defence 1.07, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Parma 35% | Draw 33% | Bologna 31%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Bologna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 49%, Bologna 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Parma's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Bologna's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.91. Form held, and they took the win. Parma (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights