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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Parma and AC Milan share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Parma and AC Milan finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 0.76 xG and AC Milan 1.33 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Parma beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.87 / defence 1.10 against AC Milan attack 1.18 / defence 0.76, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Parma 20% | Draw 32% | AC Milan 49%, with AC Milan to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 50%, AC Milan 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Parma's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

AC Milan's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, AC Milan arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights