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Prediction vindicated as Napoli edge out Sassuolo 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Napoli beat Sassuolo 1-0 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.59 xG and Sassuolo 0.95 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sassuolo landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 1.21 / defence 0.87 against Sassuolo attack 0.93 / defence 1.11, drawn from 58/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Napoli 52% | Draw 25% | Sassuolo 23%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 45%, Sassuolo 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Napoli's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.

Sassuolo's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Napoli 2.10 PPG, Sassuolo 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Napoli win broke the near-deadlock. Sassuolo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights