🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Napoli at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Napoli vs Parma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 16 as Napoli welcome Parma to Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 14 January 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Napoli — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Napoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Napoli's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Napoli are significantly better at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Parma stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Parma's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Napoli) versus 1.40 (Parma). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Napoli, 0 for Parma and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Napoli in-play and half-time data (57 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.

Parma in-play and half-time data (57 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Napoli 44% versus Parma 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Napoli 46% | Parma 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Napoli 1.54 xG and Parma 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Napoli attack 1.320 / defence 0.942 | Parma attack 0.900 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.202 / away 1.171. Napoli carry an above-average attack strength of 1.320 — their λ of 1.54 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 57 Napoli games / 57 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Napoli 50% | Draw 26% | Parma 24%. Fair-value odds: Napoli 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Parma 4.17. Napoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Napoli as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Napoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Napoli 70% | Parma 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights