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Napoli cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Inter.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Napoli beat Inter 3-1 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.35 xG and Inter 1.37 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Napoli beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 1.24 / defence 0.96 against Inter attack 1.33 / defence 0.94, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Napoli 35% | Draw 30% | Inter 35%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 47%, Inter 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Napoli's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Inter's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Napoli 2.16 PPG, Inter 2.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Napoli win broke the near-deadlock. Napoli (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm. Inter (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights