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Prediction vindicated as Napoli edge out Genoa 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Napoli beat Genoa 2-1 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.43 xG and Genoa 1.10 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 1.18 / defence 0.96 against Genoa attack 1.00 / defence 0.99, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Napoli 44% | Draw 28% | Genoa 28%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 46%, Genoa 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Napoli's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.

Genoa's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights