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Prediction vindicated as Napoli edge out Cagliari 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Napoli beat Cagliari 1-0 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.46 xG and Cagliari 0.93 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cagliari landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 1.13 / defence 0.91 against Cagliari attack 0.93 / defence 1.05, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Napoli 47% | Draw 31% | Cagliari 22%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 44%, Cagliari 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Napoli's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and duly kept one.

Cagliari's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights