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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 38

Kick-off

Fri 23 May 2025

19:45

Venue

Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

Competition

Serie A

Italy

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Napoli Win

58%

Napoli

1.72

25%

Draw

3.96

17%

Cagliari

6.00

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

13.8%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 0

11.8%

Home win

1 – 1

11.1%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.71

Napoli xG

Total xG

2.52

0.81

Cagliari xG

58%
25%
17%
NapoliDrawCagliari

1.72

58%

Home win

3.96

25%

Draw

6.00

17%

Away win

Goals Markets

72%

Over 1.5

1.39

28%

Under 1.5

3.57

46%

Over 2.5

2.17

54%

Under 2.5

1.85

25%

Over 3.5

4.00

75%

Under 3.5

1.33

11%

Over 4.5

9.09

89%

Under 4.5

1.12

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

46%

BTTS Yes

2.17

54%

BTTS No

1.86

Clean Sheet

45%

Napoli

2.24

18%

Cagliari

5.53

Win to Nil

26%

Napoli

3.86

3%

Cagliari

33.17

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.1 6.5 2.6 0.7 0.1
1 13.8 11.1 4.5 1.2 0.2
2 11.8 9.5 3.8 1.0 0.2
3 6.7 5.4 2.2 0.6 0.1
4 2.9 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.1
5 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.710
λ Away (xG) 0.808
Total xG 2.518
League avg home goals 1.239
League avg away goals 1.135
Napoli attack strength 1.245
Napoli defence strength 0.837
Cagliari attack strength 0.850
Cagliari defence strength 1.108
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 75 / 75