Monza 0-1 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Monza at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Monza vs Hellas Verona encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Hellas Verona travel to U-Power Stadium to take on Monza. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 February 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Monza stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monza's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 games at U-Power Stadium this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hellas Verona — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Hellas Verona have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Monza at 0.50 PPG versus Hellas Verona's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Monza have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 5 past contests while Hellas Verona have managed just 0 wins.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2024, ended 3–0 with Monza winning.
The historical record gives Monza a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Monza in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Hellas Verona in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 52% versus Hellas Verona 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monza 43% | Hellas Verona 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.49 xG and Hellas Verona 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 0.867 / defence 1.091 | Hellas Verona attack 0.939 / defence 1.274. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.330. Hellas Verona bring a strong defensive rating of 1.274 — this is suppressing Monza's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Monza games / 60 Hellas Verona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monza 38% | Draw 30% | Hellas Verona 32%. Fair-value odds: Monza 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Hellas Verona 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Monza at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Monza 80% | Hellas Verona 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: U-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Feb 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 38% | Draw 30% | Hellas Verona 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 60% | xG Monza 1.49 / Hellas Verona 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 0.867 / def 1.091 | Hellas Verona attack 0.939 / def 1.274 | league avg home 1.352 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: Monza (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Monza xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Hellas Verona xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monza vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Monza vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 1 February 2025 at U-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Monza vs Hellas Verona?
Monza 0 - 1 Hellas Verona.
Where is Monza vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at U-Power Stadium.
What competition is Monza vs Hellas Verona part of?
Monza vs Hellas Verona is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 38% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Monza and Hellas Verona will score (BTTS).
Will Monza vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Hellas Verona?
Record (5 meetings): Monza 3W | Draws 2 | Hellas Verona 0W.
What form are Monza and Hellas Verona in?
Monza (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Hellas Verona (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Monza's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Hellas Verona's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, Hellas Verona's attack versus Monza's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
38%
2.62
30%
3.39
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Monza xG
Total xG
2.86
1.36
Hellas Verona xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
10%
10.22
7%
13.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.7 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Monza and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Monza and 1.36 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Monza have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 13W 19D 28L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hellas Verona's form line: 15W 13D 32L from 60 games, 0.97 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-D. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Monza on 0.97 PPG, Hellas Verona on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Monza have posted 1.00 PPG from 30 outings (7W 9D 14L).
On the road, Hellas Verona have gone 6W 6D 18L from 30 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Monza are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 1.05 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Blended
Hellas Verona
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monza and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 13W 19D 28L in their last 60 games (0.97 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 15W 13D 32L in their last 60 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or Hellas Verona away?
Monza's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 1.00 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Monza and Hellas Verona runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2024, when Monza won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Monza's record when hosting Hellas Verona specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Monza
2
Draws
1
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Hellas Verona?
From 6 meetings on record, Monza have won 3, Hellas Verona have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Monza and Hellas Verona last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Monza 0-1 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Monza and Hellas Verona?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 60%, Hellas Verona 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Monza) and 47% (Hellas Verona).
On the defensive side: Hellas Verona in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monza play Hellas Verona?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Monza's games and 53% of Hellas Verona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Monza vs Hellas Verona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Monza's recent games and 47% of Hellas Verona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monza and Hellas Verona tend to score early?
Monza have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Hellas Verona in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hellas Verona defy the odds to beat Monza 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hellas Verona beat Monza 0-1 at U-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.49 xG and Hellas Verona 1.36 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Monza fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 0.87 / defence 1.09 against Hellas Verona attack 0.94 / defence 1.27, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 38% | Draw 30% | Hellas Verona 32%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Hellas Verona win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 43%, Hellas Verona 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Monza 0.97 PPG, Hellas Verona 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hellas Verona win broke the near-deadlock. Monza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.