🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Napoli edge out Lecce 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Napoli beat Lecce 0-1 at Stadio Via del Mare, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 0.90 xG and Napoli 1.26 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lecce fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 0.82 / defence 1.13 against Napoli attack 1.05 / defence 0.91, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lecce 24% | Draw 32% | Napoli 43%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 41%, Napoli 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lecce's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Napoli's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 0.87. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights