🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Juventus edge out Lecce 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Juventus beat Lecce 0-1 at Stadio Via del Mare, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 0.75 xG and Juventus 1.49 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 0.74 / defence 1.15 against Juventus attack 1.16 / defence 0.81, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lecce 18% | Draw 27% | Juventus 54%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 38%, Juventus 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lecce's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 49% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Juventus's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 0.90. Form held, and they took the win. Juventus (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights