Lecce 1-0 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hellas Verona at 48% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lecce vs Hellas Verona encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Hellas Verona travel to Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare to take on Lecce in Serie A (matchday 10). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 29 October 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lecce stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Lecce's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Hellas Verona — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hellas Verona's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lecce 0.60 PPG, Hellas Verona 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, Hellas Verona have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for Lecce.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Mar 2024, ended Lecce 0–1 Hellas Verona — a Hellas Verona win.
Hellas Verona have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
Lecce trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Hellas Verona trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecce 38% versus Hellas Verona 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lecce 38% | Hellas Verona 57%). Note also that Hellas Verona surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Lecce recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecce 1.47 xG and Hellas Verona 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecce attack 0.749 / defence 1.567 | Hellas Verona attack 0.986 / defence 1.316. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.279. Lecce's attack rating of 0.749 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.47. Hellas Verona's defence rating of 1.316 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lecce's projected output up. Lecce's defence rating of 1.567 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Hellas Verona's projected output up. Data: built from Lecce's last 47 games and Hellas Verona's last 47.
Result probabilities: Lecce 27% | Draw 25% | Hellas Verona 48%. Fair-value odds: Lecce 3.71 | Draw 3.97 | Hellas Verona 2.09. Hellas Verona hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (1.47 / 1.98) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Form (Lecce's last 10 home games and Hellas Verona's last 10 away games) suggests only ~1.8 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 67% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
Poisson rates Hellas Verona as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Hellas Verona 3 wins from 4 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hellas Verona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.44 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Lecce 20% (last 10 home games) | Hellas Verona 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecce vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, matchday 10 | Venue: Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare • Kick-off: Tuesday 29 October 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecce 27% | Draw 25% | Hellas Verona 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 68% (No 32%) | xG Lecce 1.47 / Hellas Verona 1.98 • Poisson strength factors: Lecce attack 0.749 / def 1.567 | Hellas Verona attack 0.986 / def 1.316 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Lecce xG
Expected Goals
1.98
Hellas Verona xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lecce vs Hellas Verona FAQs
What time does Lecce vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Lecce vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Tuesday 29 October 2024 at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare.
What was the final score in Lecce vs Hellas Verona?
Lecce 1 - 0 Hellas Verona.
Where is Lecce vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare.
What competition is Lecce vs Hellas Verona part of?
Lecce vs Hellas Verona is a Serie A fixture (matchday 10) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecce vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Lecce a 27% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 48% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecce vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Lecce and Hellas Verona will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lecce vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lecce's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Hellas Verona's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, Hellas Verona's attack versus Lecce's defence, projects 1.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lecce's last 47 games and Hellas Verona's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
27%
3.71
25%
3.97
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
2 – 1
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Lecce xG
Total xG
3.44
1.98
Hellas Verona xG
3.71
27%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.13
Clean Sheet
14%
7.22
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
4%
26.78
11%
9.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lecce vs Hellas Verona Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecce vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Lecce and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Lecce and 1.98 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecce vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, Lecce have picked up 0.91 PPG on a 9W 16D 22L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Hellas Verona's form line: 12W 11D 24L from 47 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lecce on 0.91 PPG, Hellas Verona on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lecce have posted 1.22 PPG from their last 23 home games (7W 7D 9L).
On the road, Hellas Verona have gone 4W 5D 14L from their last 23 away games — 0.74 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lecce come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lecce are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 1.09 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecce
Blended
Hellas Verona
Blended
Lecce (Home) vs Hellas Verona (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lecce
Blended
Hellas Verona
Blended
❓ Lecce vs Hellas Verona Form FAQs
What form are Lecce and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Lecce have gone 9W 16D 22L in their last 47 games (0.91 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 12W 11D 24L in their last 47 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecce at home or Hellas Verona away?
Lecce's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecce at home: 1.22 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to January 2023. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 25 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Lecce's record when hosting Hellas Verona specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Lecce
4
Draws
3
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Lecce vs Hellas Verona H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Hellas Verona?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Lecce have won 1, Hellas Verona have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lecce and Hellas Verona last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2026: Hellas Verona 0-0 Lecce.
Who has won more matches between Lecce and Hellas Verona?
Hellas Verona have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecce 39%, Hellas Verona 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Lecce) and 48% (Hellas Verona).
On the defensive side: Lecce have failed to score in 44% of games; Hellas Verona in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecce home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lecce vs Hellas Verona Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lecce and Hellas Verona matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Lecce's recent matches and 52% of Hellas Verona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lecce and Hellas Verona matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Lecce's recent games and 48% of Hellas Verona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lecce and Hellas Verona matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Lecce's recent matches and 65% of Hellas Verona's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lecce defy the odds to beat Hellas Verona 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lecce beat Hellas Verona 1-0 at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 1.47 xG and Hellas Verona 1.98 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hellas Verona landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 0.75 / defence 1.57 against Hellas Verona attack 0.99 / defence 1.32, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecce 27% | Draw 25% | Hellas Verona 48%, with Hellas Verona to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Lecce win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 38%, Hellas Verona 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecce's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lecce 0.91 PPG, Hellas Verona 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lecce win broke the near-deadlock. Lecce (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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