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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lecce and Fiorentina share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Via del Mare, Regular Season - 33, as Lecce and Fiorentina drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 1.07 xG and Fiorentina 1.46 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 0.75 / defence 1.19 against Fiorentina attack 1.06 / defence 1.14, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lecce 28% | Draw 26% | Fiorentina 46%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 39%, Fiorentina 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lecce's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.

Fiorentina's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights