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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lazio and Udinese share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 28, as Lazio and Udinese drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lazio 1.84 xG and Udinese 1.25 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Lazio fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lazio attack 1.32 / defence 1.12 against Udinese attack 0.90 / defence 1.07, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lazio 50% | Draw 26% | Udinese 24%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lazio 54%, Udinese 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lazio's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Udinese's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Lazio arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights