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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 34

Kick-off

Mon 28 Apr 2025

19:45

Venue

Stadio Olimpico

Competition

Serie A

Italy

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Lazio Win

55%

Lazio

1.83

27%

Draw

3.75

19%

Parma

5.38

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

14.3%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

11.7%

Draw

2 – 0

11.3%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.59

Lazio xG

Total xG

2.41

0.82

Parma xG

55%
27%
19%
LazioDrawParma

1.83

55%

Home win

3.75

27%

Draw

5.38

19%

Away win

Goals Markets

69%

Over 1.5

1.45

31%

Under 1.5

3.23

43%

Over 2.5

2.33

57%

Under 2.5

1.75

22%

Over 3.5

4.55

78%

Under 3.5

1.28

10%

Over 4.5

10.00

90%

Under 4.5

1.11

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

45%

BTTS Yes

2.21

55%

BTTS No

1.83

Clean Sheet

44%

Lazio

2.28

20%

Parma

4.89

Win to Nil

24%

Lazio

4.16

4%

Parma

26.29

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 9.0 7.4 3.0 0.8 0.2
1 14.3 11.7 4.8 1.3 0.3
2 11.3 9.3 3.8 1.0 0.2
3 6.0 4.9 2.0 0.6 0.1
4 2.4 2.0 0.8 0.2
5 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.587
λ Away (xG) 0.822
Total xG 2.409
League avg home goals 1.205
League avg away goals 1.104
Lazio attack strength 1.205
Lazio defence strength 1.125
Parma attack strength 0.661
Parma defence strength 1.093
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 71 / 33