Lazio 1-2 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lazio vs Fiorentina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Fiorentina travel to Stadio Olimpico to take on Lazio. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 January 2025, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lazio stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Lazio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lazio's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Olimpico this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Fiorentina have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lazio at 1.70 PPG versus Fiorentina's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Lazio have won 4, Fiorentina 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2024, ended 1–2 with Fiorentina winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Lazio trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Fiorentina trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lazio 53% versus Fiorentina 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lazio 50% | Fiorentina 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lazio 1.35 xG and Fiorentina 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lazio attack 1.128 / defence 1.056 | Fiorentina attack 1.074 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.323. Data: 59 Lazio games / 58 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lazio 32% | Draw 29% | Fiorentina 39%. Fair-value odds: Lazio 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Fiorentina 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.35 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fiorentina are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fiorentina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lazio 70% | Fiorentina 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lazio vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jan 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lazio 32% | Draw 29% | Fiorentina 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 60% | xG Lazio 1.35 / Fiorentina 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Lazio attack 1.128 / def 1.056 | Fiorentina attack 1.074 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Lazio xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Fiorentina xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lazio vs Fiorentina kick off?
Lazio vs Fiorentina kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 26 January 2025 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in Lazio vs Fiorentina?
Lazio 1 - 2 Fiorentina.
Where is Lazio vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is Lazio vs Fiorentina part of?
Lazio vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lazio vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Lazio a 32% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lazio vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Lazio and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Lazio vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Fiorentina?
Record (7 meetings): Lazio 4W | Draws 1 | Fiorentina 2W.
What form are Lazio and Fiorentina in?
Lazio (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Fiorentina (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lazio's attack at 1.13x the league average against Fiorentina's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fiorentina's attack versus Lazio's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
32%
3.12
29%
3.43
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Lazio xG
Total xG
2.85
1.50
Fiorentina xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
22%
4.49
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
7%
14.00
10%
9.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.7 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lazio vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Lazio and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Lazio and 1.50 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Lazio vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lazio's recent record stands at 30W 10D 18L from 58 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Lazio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fiorentina, meanwhile, have gone 26W 15D 17L across 58 games — 1.60 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lazio on 1.72 PPG, Fiorentina on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lazio have managed 16W 7D 6L from 29 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fiorentina's away record stands at 11W 7D 11L across 29 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lazio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lazio are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.62 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lazio
Blended
Fiorentina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lazio and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Lazio have gone 30W 10D 18L in their last 58 games (1.72 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 26W 15D 17L in their last 58 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lazio at home or Fiorentina away?
Lazio's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lazio at home: 1.90 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Lazio or Fiorentina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lazio have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Fiorentina in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Oct 2022, when Lazio won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lazio's record when hosting Fiorentina specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lazio
2
Draws
4
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Fiorentina?
From 10 meetings on record, Lazio have won 4, Fiorentina have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lazio and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Fiorentina 1-0 Lazio.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lazio see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lazio 48%, Fiorentina 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Lazio) and 38% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Lazio keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Fiorentina in 31%; Fiorentina in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lazio home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lazio play Fiorentina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Lazio's recent matches and 45% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lazio vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Lazio's recent games and 38% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lazio and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Lazio have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fiorentina edge out Lazio 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Lazio 1-2 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lazio 1.35 xG and Fiorentina 1.50 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lazio attack 1.13 / defence 1.06 against Fiorentina attack 1.07 / defence 0.88, drawn from 59/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lazio 32% | Draw 29% | Fiorentina 39%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lazio 50%, Fiorentina 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lazio's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Fiorentina's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lazio 1.72 PPG, Fiorentina 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fiorentina win broke the near-deadlock. Lazio (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.