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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 4

Kick-off

Sun 21 Sep 2025

11:30

Venue

Stadio Olimpico

Competition

Serie A

Italy

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Lazio Win

43%

Lazio

2.33

28%

Draw

3.53

29%

AS Roma

3.49

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

13.0%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

12.8%

Home win

0 – 1

9.9%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.31

Lazio xG

Total xG

2.32

1.02

AS Roma xG

43%
28%
29%
LazioDrawAS Roma

2.33

43%

Home win

3.53

28%

Draw

3.49

29%

Away win

Goals Markets

67%

Over 1.5

1.49

33%

Under 1.5

3.03

41%

Over 2.5

2.44

59%

Under 2.5

1.69

21%

Over 3.5

4.76

79%

Under 3.5

1.27

9%

Over 4.5

11.11

91%

Under 4.5

1.10

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

47%

BTTS Yes

2.14

53%

BTTS No

1.88

Clean Sheet

36%

Lazio

2.76

27%

AS Roma

3.70

Win to Nil

16%

Lazio

6.43

8%

AS Roma

12.89

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 9.8 9.9 5.1 1.7 0.4 0.1
1 12.8 13.0 6.6 2.2 0.6 0.1
2 8.4 8.5 4.3 1.5 0.4 0.1
3 3.7 3.7 1.9 0.6 0.2
4 1.2 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1
5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.308
λ Away (xG) 1.016
Total xG 2.324
League avg home goals 1.216
League avg away goals 1.088
Lazio attack strength 1.297
Lazio defence strength 0.941
AS Roma attack strength 0.993
AS Roma defence strength 0.829
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 41 / 41