Lazio 1-1 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lazio at 38%, yet in-form AS Roma provide a compelling counter-argument — this Lazio vs AS Roma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Olimpico plays host to Lazio versus AS Roma in Serie A, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Sunday 13 April 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Lazio (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Lazio's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Olimpico this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AS Roma's overall Serie A record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
AS Roma away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. AS Roma are 1.00 PPG clear of Lazio in recent Serie A fixtures (2.60 vs 1.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Lazio 3W, AS Roma 3W, 1D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Jan 2025, ended 0–2 with AS Roma winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Lazio goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lazio 56% versus AS Roma 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lazio 52% | AS Roma 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lazio 1.30 xG and AS Roma 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lazio attack 1.209 / defence 1.116 | AS Roma attack 0.920 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.252 / away 1.146. Data: 69 Lazio games / 69 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lazio 38% | Draw 30% | AS Roma 32%. Fair-value odds: Lazio 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | AS Roma 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lazio as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form AS Roma (2.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lazio if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lazio 80% | AS Roma 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lazio vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Apr 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lazio 38% | Draw 30% | AS Roma 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Lazio 1.30 / AS Roma 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Lazio attack 1.209 / def 1.116 | AS Roma attack 0.920 / def 0.861 | league avg home 1.252 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Lazio (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Lazio xG
Expected Goals
1.18
AS Roma xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lazio vs AS Roma kick off?
Lazio vs AS Roma kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 13 April 2025 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in Lazio vs AS Roma?
Lazio 1 - 1 AS Roma.
Where is Lazio vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is Lazio vs AS Roma part of?
Lazio vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lazio vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Lazio a 38% chance of winning, AS Roma a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lazio vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Lazio and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Lazio vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and AS Roma?
Record (7 meetings): Lazio 3W | Draws 1 | AS Roma 3W.
What form are Lazio and AS Roma in?
Lazio (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. AS Roma (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lazio's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (0.92x) against Lazio's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
38%
2.64
30%
3.30
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Lazio xG
Total xG
2.48
1.18
AS Roma xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
12%
8.55
9%
11.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.8 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lazio vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Lazio and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Lazio and 1.18 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Lazio vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lazio's recent record stands at 34W 14D 21L from 69 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-W in the last five.
AS Roma, meanwhile, have gone 33W 17D 19L across 69 games — 1.68 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.68 PPG for Lazio against 1.68 for AS Roma. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lazio have managed 17W 10D 7L from 34 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AS Roma's away record stands at 11W 11D 12L across 34 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lazio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lazio are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.61 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lazio
Current Season
AS Roma
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lazio and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Lazio have gone 34W 14D 21L in their last 69 games (1.68 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 33W 17D 19L in their last 69 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lazio at home or AS Roma away?
Lazio's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lazio at home: 1.79 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Lazio or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lazio have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, AS Roma in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
AS Roma go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 3-0 on 20 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lazio have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Lazio
2
Draws
5
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and AS Roma?
From 10 meetings on record, Lazio have won 3, AS Roma have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lazio and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when AS Roma 2-0 Lazio.
Who has won more matches between Lazio and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
AS Roma see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lazio 56%, AS Roma 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Lazio) and 50% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: Lazio keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; AS Roma in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lazio home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lazio play AS Roma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Lazio's games and 59% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lazio vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Lazio's recent games and 50% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lazio and AS Roma tend to score early?
Lazio have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lazio and AS Roma share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio and AS Roma finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lazio 1.30 xG and AS Roma 1.18 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lazio attack 1.21 / defence 1.12 against AS Roma attack 0.92 / defence 0.86, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lazio 38% | Draw 30% | AS Roma 32%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lazio 52%, AS Roma 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lazio's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
AS Roma's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lazio 1.68 PPG, AS Roma 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.