Juventus vs Venezia – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Juventus's attack rating (1.01) and Venezia's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Venezia's attack versus Juventus's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.6%), 1-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
64%
1.56
22%
4.45
14%
7.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Juventus xG
Total xG
2.45
0.67
Venezia xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
7.36
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
17%
5.92
Win to Nil
33%
3.06
2%
43.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 10.3 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.6 | 9.2 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventus vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Juventus and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Juventus and 0.67 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventus vs Venezia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.