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Prediction vindicated as Juventus edge out Inter 4-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Juventus beat Inter 4-3 at Allianz Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventus 1.24 xG and Inter 1.02 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Juventus beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Inter outscored their 1.02 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventus attack 1.15 / defence 0.85 against Inter attack 1.15 / defence 0.89, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Juventus 40% | Draw 31% | Inter 29%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventus 40%, Inter 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Juventus's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

Inter's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Juventus 1.90 PPG, Inter 2.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juventus win broke the near-deadlock. Juventus (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Inter (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights