🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Juventus cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Genoa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Juventus beat Genoa 2-0 at Allianz Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventus 1.70 xG and Genoa 0.98 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Genoa landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventus attack 1.33 / defence 0.88 against Genoa attack 0.94 / defence 1.01, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Juventus 54% | Draw 24% | Genoa 22%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventus 44%, Genoa 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Juventus's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.

Genoa's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Juventus (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights