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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Juventus edge out Genoa 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Juventus beat Genoa 1-0 at Allianz Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventus 1.49 xG and Genoa 0.90 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Genoa landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventus attack 1.18 / defence 0.93 against Genoa attack 0.80 / defence 0.97, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Juventus 49% | Draw 30% | Genoa 21%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventus 43%, Genoa 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Juventus's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.

Genoa's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights