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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Juventus run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Empoli.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Juventus beat Empoli 4-1 at Allianz Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventus 1.73 xG and Empoli 1.13 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Juventus beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventus attack 1.12 / defence 0.86 against Empoli attack 0.99 / defence 1.15, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Juventus 49% | Draw 28% | Empoli 23%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventus 42%, Empoli 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Juventus's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Empoli's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.95. That form edge translated into the three points. Juventus (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm. Empoli (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights