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Prediction vindicated as Juventus edge out Cagliari 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Juventus beat Cagliari 2-1 at Allianz Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventus 1.36 xG and Cagliari 0.82 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventus attack 1.15 / defence 0.84 against Cagliari attack 0.87 / defence 0.99, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Juventus 48% | Draw 31% | Cagliari 21%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventus 38%, Cagliari 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Juventus's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Cagliari's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights