Inter vs Parma – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Inter's attack at 1.35x the league average against Parma's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 2.03 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Parma's attack (0.96x) against Inter's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 51/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
55%
1.81
22%
4.54
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Inter xG
Total xG
3.28
1.25
Parma xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
13%
7.61
Win to Nil
16%
6.32
3%
33.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inter vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Inter and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Inter and 1.25 for Parma, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Inter vs Parma?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.