🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Inter and Hellas Verona share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Inter and Hellas Verona finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter 2.56 xG and Hellas Verona 0.78 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Inter fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter attack 1.71 / defence 0.85 against Hellas Verona attack 0.80 / defence 1.22, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Inter 76% | Draw 15% | Hellas Verona 9%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 76%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter 55%, Hellas Verona 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Inter's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Hellas Verona's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Inter (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.41 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights