Inter vs Genoa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Inter (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Inter face Genoa.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Inter and Genoa meet at in Serie A, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 29 November 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Inter have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Inter have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Inter's home record at : 8W 2D 0L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Genoa (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Genoa have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Genoa have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 1.60 in Inter's favour (2.40 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Inter have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 8 meetings, with Genoa managing just 0 victories and 3 draws shared.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 2–0 with Inter winning.
The historical record gives Inter a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Inter — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Genoa — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inter 48% versus Genoa 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inter 55% | Genoa 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inter 1.65 xG and Genoa 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inter attack 1.494 / defence 0.929 | Genoa attack 0.756 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.233. Inter carry an above-average attack strength of 1.494 — their λ of 1.65 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 40 Inter games / 40 Genoa games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Inter 56% | Draw 24% | Genoa 20%. Fair-value odds: Inter 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Genoa 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Inter (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Inter are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Inter 60% | Genoa 20% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inter vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inter 56% | Draw 24% | Genoa 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 47% | xG Inter 1.65 / Genoa 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Inter attack 1.494 / def 0.929 | Genoa attack 0.756 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Inter (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Inter xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Genoa xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inter vs Genoa kick off?
Inter vs Genoa is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 29 November 2026.
What competition is Inter vs Genoa part of?
Inter vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Inter vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Inter a 56% chance of winning, Genoa a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inter vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Inter and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Inter vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and Genoa?
Record (8 meetings): Inter 5W | Draws 3 | Genoa 0W.
What form are Inter and Genoa in?
Inter (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Genoa (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Inter's attacking strength (1.49x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. Flip it around — Genoa's attack (0.76x) against Inter's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
56%
1.79
24%
4.09
20%
5.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Inter xG
Total xG
2.52
0.87
Genoa xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
5.10
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
19%
5.20
Win to Nil
24%
4.25
4%
26.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 11.5 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inter vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Inter and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Inter and 0.87 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Inter vs Genoa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 40 outings, Inter have picked up 2.33 PPG on a 29W 6D 5L record — W-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Inter, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Genoa's form line: 10W 11D 19L from 40 games, 1.02 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Genoa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Inter are the form team by 1.31 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Genoa.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Inter have posted 2.40 PPG from 20 outings (15W 3D 2L).
On the road, Genoa have gone 4W 7D 9L from 20 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Inter are averaging 2.35 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.02 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Inter have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inter
Early Season
Genoa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inter and Genoa in coming into this match?
Inter have gone 29W 6D 5L in their last 40 games (2.33 PPG), while Genoa have gone 10W 11D 19L in their last 40 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inter at home or Genoa away?
Inter's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inter at home: 2.40 PPG; Genoa away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Inter or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inter have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Genoa in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Inter have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Inter won 4-0 on 21 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Inter have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Genoa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Inter
3
Draws
0
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and Genoa?
From 8 meetings on record, Inter have won 5, Genoa have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Inter and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Inter 2-0 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Inter and Genoa?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inter 55%, Genoa 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Inter) and 45% (Genoa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 15% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Inter keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Genoa in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inter home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inter play Genoa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Inter's games and 55% of Genoa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Inter vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Inter's matches and 45% of Genoa's.
Do Inter and Genoa tend to score early?
Inter have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Genoa in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.