Inter 2-1 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Inter (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Inter face Fiorentina.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Fiorentina travel to San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza to take on Inter. The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 October 2026, 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Inter stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Inter have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Inter's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fiorentina — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Fiorentina have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Fiorentina have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Inter carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Inter: 5 wins from 9 previous clashes against 2 for Fiorentina, with 2 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Inter and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Inter trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Fiorentina trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inter 51% versus Fiorentina 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inter 60% | Fiorentina 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inter 2.94 xG and Fiorentina 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inter attack 1.571 / defence 1.012 | Fiorentina attack 1.045 / defence 1.264. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.352. Inter carry an above-average attack strength of 1.571 — their λ of 2.94 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Fiorentina bring a strong defensive rating of 1.264 — this is suppressing Inter's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Inter games / 45 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inter 68% | Draw 16% | Fiorentina 16%. Fair-value odds: Inter 1.47 | Draw 6.25 | Fiorentina 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Inter (68%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 81% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 4.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 81% — a total xG of 4.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.94 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Inter as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.37 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 81% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Inter 60% | Fiorentina 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inter vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inter 68% | Draw 16% | Fiorentina 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 81% | BTTS 72% | xG Inter 2.94 / Fiorentina 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Inter attack 1.571 / def 1.012 | Fiorentina attack 1.045 / def 1.264 | league avg home 1.482 / away 1.352 • Poisson stance: Inter (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.94
Inter xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Fiorentina xG
72%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
64%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inter vs Fiorentina kick off?
Inter vs Fiorentina kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 25 October 2026 at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza.
What was the final score in Inter vs Fiorentina?
Inter 2 - 1 Fiorentina.
Where is Inter vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza.
What competition is Inter vs Fiorentina part of?
Inter vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Inter vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Inter a 68% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 16% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inter vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Inter and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Inter vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 81%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and Fiorentina?
Record (9 meetings): Inter 5W | Draws 2 | Fiorentina 2W.
What form are Inter and Fiorentina in?
Inter (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Fiorentina (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Inter's attack at 1.57x the league average against Fiorentina's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 2.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fiorentina's attack versus Inter's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 7.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (7.7%), 1-1 (6.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
68%
1.46
16%
6.42
16%
6.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.7%
Home win
2 – 2
5.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.94
Inter xG
Total xG
4.37
1.43
Fiorentina xG
1.46
68%
Home win
6.42
16%
Draw
6.24
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
81%
Over 2.5
1.23
19%
Under 2.5
5.26
64%
Over 3.5
1.56
36%
Under 3.5
2.78
44%
Over 4.5
2.27
56%
Under 4.5
1.79
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.58
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
5%
18.97
Win to Nil
16%
6.10
1%
118.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inter vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.8%.
How many goals are Inter and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 2.94 expected goals for Inter and 1.43 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 4.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Inter vs Fiorentina?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Inter come into this having played 45 games, going 33W 7D 5L for 2.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Inter, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Fiorentina sit at 1.02 PPG from 45 outings (10W 16D 19L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Fiorentina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Inter carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.34 PPG clear of Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Inter's home form reads 17W 3D 2L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Fiorentina have taken 1.09 points per game from 22 outings (6W 6D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Inter are averaging 2.44 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.09 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fiorentina in 60%.
Defensively: Inter have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inter
Early Season
Fiorentina
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inter and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Inter have gone 33W 7D 5L in their last 45 games (2.36 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 10W 16D 19L in their last 45 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inter at home or Fiorentina away?
Inter's home record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inter at home: 2.45 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Inter or Fiorentina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inter have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Fiorentina in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Inter and Fiorentina runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 25 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Sep 2023, when Inter won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Inter's record when hosting Fiorentina specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Inter
2
Draws
2
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and Fiorentina?
From 10 meetings on record, Inter have won 6, Fiorentina have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Inter and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2026, when Inter 2-1 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Inter and Fiorentina?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inter 59%, Fiorentina 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Inter and 64% for Fiorentina. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Inter keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Fiorentina in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inter home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inter play Fiorentina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Inter's games and 54% of Fiorentina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Inter vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Inter's matches and 64% of Fiorentina's.
Do Inter and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Inter have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Inter edge out Fiorentina 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat Fiorentina 2-1 at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter 2.94 xG and Fiorentina 1.43 xG, a combined 4.37. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Inter fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter attack 1.57 / defence 1.01 against Fiorentina attack 1.04 / defence 1.26, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inter 68% | Draw 16% | Fiorentina 16%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 68%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 81%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 64% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter 60%, Fiorentina 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inter's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Fiorentina's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.02. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.