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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Inter run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Fiorentina.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Inter beat Fiorentina 3-0 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter 1.74 xG and Fiorentina 0.93 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Inter beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fiorentina landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter attack 1.48 / defence 1.01 against Fiorentina attack 0.86 / defence 0.96, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Inter 55% | Draw 27% | Fiorentina 18%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter 59%, Fiorentina 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Inter's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.

Fiorentina's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Inter (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights