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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Inter cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Empoli.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Inter beat Empoli 3-1 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter 1.93 xG and Empoli 1.31 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Inter beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter attack 1.36 / defence 0.98 against Empoli attack 1.03 / defence 1.08, drawn from 57/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Inter 50% | Draw 25% | Empoli 24%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter 58%, Empoli 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Inter's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.

Empoli's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 0.98. That form edge translated into the three points. Empoli (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights