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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Inter cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cagliari.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Inter beat Cagliari 3-1 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter 1.62 xG and Cagliari 0.86 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Inter beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter attack 1.35 / defence 1.02 against Cagliari attack 0.72 / defence 0.95, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Inter 54% | Draw 28% | Cagliari 19%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter 58%, Cagliari 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Inter's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.

Cagliari's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 0.96. Form held, and they took the win. Cagliari (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights