Inter vs Bologna – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Inter at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Inter vs Bologna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Inter host Bologna at in Serie A, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 25 April 2027 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Inter — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Inter have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Inter's home record at : 8W 2D 0L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Bologna have posted 7W 0D 3L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Inter are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Inter have won 4, Bologna 3, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2026, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Inter in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Bologna in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inter 48% versus Bologna 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inter 55% | Bologna 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inter 1.67 xG and Bologna 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inter attack 1.494 / defence 0.929 | Bologna attack 0.938 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.233. Inter carry an above-average attack strength of 1.494 — their λ of 1.67 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 40 Inter games / 40 Bologna games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Inter 51% | Draw 24% | Bologna 24%. Fair-value odds: Inter 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Bologna 4.17. Inter hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Inter at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inter offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Inter 60% | Bologna 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inter vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Apr 2027, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inter 51% | Draw 24% | Bologna 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Inter 1.67 / Bologna 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Inter attack 1.494 / def 0.929 | Bologna attack 0.938 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Inter (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Inter xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Bologna xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inter vs Bologna kick off?
Inter vs Bologna is scheduled to kick off at 16:30 on Sunday 25 April 2027.
What competition is Inter vs Bologna part of?
Inter vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Inter vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Inter a 51% chance of winning, Bologna a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inter vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Inter and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Inter vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and Bologna?
Record (10 meetings): Inter 4W | Draws 3 | Bologna 3W.
What form are Inter and Bologna in?
Inter (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Bologna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Inter's attack rating (1.49) and Bologna's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Inter's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
51%
1.95
24%
4.12
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Inter xG
Total xG
2.75
1.07
Bologna xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
18%
5.70
5%
21.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.5 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inter vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Inter and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Inter and 1.07 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Inter vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Inter have picked up 2.33 PPG on a 29W 6D 5L record — W-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Inter, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bologna's form line: 16W 8D 16L from 40 games, 1.40 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Inter are the form team by 0.93 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bologna.
Venue Form
On home soil, Inter have posted 2.40 PPG from 20 outings (15W 3D 2L).
On the road, Bologna have gone 10W 4D 6L from 20 away games — 1.70 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Inter are averaging 2.35 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.23 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Inter have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inter
Early Season
Bologna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inter and Bologna in coming into this match?
Inter have gone 29W 6D 5L in their last 40 games (2.33 PPG), while Bologna have gone 16W 8D 16L in their last 40 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inter at home or Bologna away?
Inter's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inter at home: 2.40 PPG; Bologna away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Inter or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inter have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Bologna in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2021, when Inter won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Inter's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Inter
3
Draws
3
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, Inter have won 4, Bologna have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Inter and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Bologna 3-3 Inter.
Who has won more matches between Inter and Bologna?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inter 55%, Bologna 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Inter) and 50% (Bologna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Inter keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inter home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inter play Bologna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Inter's games and 55% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Inter vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Inter's matches and 50% of Bologna's.
Do Inter and Bologna tend to score early?
Inter have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Bologna in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.