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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Inter cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bologna.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Inter beat Bologna 3-1 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter 1.71 xG and Bologna 1.09 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Inter beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter attack 1.57 / defence 0.78 against Bologna attack 1.26 / defence 0.93, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Inter 52% | Draw 24% | Bologna 24%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter 57%, Bologna 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Inter's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Bologna's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.63. That form edge translated into the three points. Bologna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights