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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Inter and Bologna share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 19, as Inter and Bologna drew 2-2 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter 1.95 xG and Bologna 1.44 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter attack 1.38 / defence 0.94 against Bologna attack 1.18 / defence 1.10, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Inter 48% | Draw 24% | Bologna 27%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter 57%, Bologna 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Inter's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and conceded here.

Bologna's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.45 PPG against 1.73. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Inter (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights