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Shock result as AS Roma defy the odds to beat Inter 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AS Roma beat Inter 0-1 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter 1.50 xG and AS Roma 1.08 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Inter fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter attack 1.43 / defence 1.05 against AS Roma attack 0.92 / defence 0.86, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Inter 46% | Draw 27% | AS Roma 27%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual AS Roma win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter 58%, AS Roma 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Inter's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

AS Roma's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.69. Form was overturned, with AS Roma winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Inter (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.31 scoring average — below par going forward. AS Roma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights