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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Udinese cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Hellas Verona.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Udinese beat Hellas Verona 1-3 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.33 xG and Udinese 1.48 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Udinese outscored their 1.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.90 / defence 1.37 against Udinese attack 0.95 / defence 1.21, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 34% | Draw 25% | Udinese 41%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 51%, Udinese 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hellas Verona's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Udinese's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hellas Verona 0.86 PPG, Udinese 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Udinese win broke the near-deadlock. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Udinese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights