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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Torino run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Hellas Verona.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Torino beat Hellas Verona 0-3 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.25 xG and Torino 1.12 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Hellas Verona fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Torino outscored their 1.12 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 1.05 / defence 1.13 against Torino attack 0.90 / defence 1.00, drawn from 54/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 39% | Draw 28% | Torino 33%, with Hellas Verona to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Torino win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 50%, Torino 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hellas Verona's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Torino's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hellas Verona 0.91 PPG, Torino 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Torino win broke the near-deadlock. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Torino (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights