Hellas Verona 1-2 Torino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hellas Verona at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hellas Verona vs Torino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 36 as Hellas Verona welcome Torino to Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 May 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Hellas Verona — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hellas Verona have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Torino stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Torino have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Hellas Verona) versus 1.10 (Torino). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Torino, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Hellas Verona.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Torino have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Hellas Verona in-play and half-time data (73 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Torino in-play and half-time data (73 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 55% versus Torino 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Hellas Verona 42% | Torino 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.29 xG and Torino 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.921 / defence 1.074 | Torino attack 0.923 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.172. Data: 73 Hellas Verona games / 73 Torino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 38% | Draw 29% | Torino 32%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Torino 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hellas Verona at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hellas Verona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hellas Verona 60% | Torino 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 38% | Draw 29% | Torino 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Hellas Verona 1.29 / Torino 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.921 / def 1.074 | Torino attack 0.923 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Torino xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Torino kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Torino kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Torino?
Hellas Verona 1 - 2 Torino.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Torino being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Torino part of?
Hellas Verona vs Torino is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 38% chance of winning, Torino a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Hellas Verona and Torino will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Torino?
Record (5 meetings): Hellas Verona 0W | Draws 2 | Torino 3W.
What form are Hellas Verona and Torino in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Torino (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hellas Verona's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Torino's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Torino's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
38%
2.60
29%
3.41
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.45
1.16
Torino xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
12%
8.33
9%
11.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.0 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.9 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.16 for Torino, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Torino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 73 outings, Hellas Verona have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 16W 20D 37L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Torino's form line: 25W 25D 23L from 73 games, 1.37 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-D.
Put side by side, Torino are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hellas Verona.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hellas Verona have posted 1.26 PPG from 35 outings (12W 8D 15L).
On the road, Torino have gone 12W 9D 14L from 35 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Hellas Verona are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 1.00 scored and 0.99 conceded.
Defensively: Torino in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Current Season
Torino
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Torino in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 16W 20D 37L in their last 73 games (0.93 PPG), while Torino have gone 25W 25D 23L in their last 73 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Torino away?
Torino's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.26 PPG; Torino away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Hellas Verona or Torino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hellas Verona have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Torino in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Torino have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Jan 2026, when Torino won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hellas Verona's record when hosting Torino specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Hellas Verona
3
Draws
7
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Torino?
From 10 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 0, Torino have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Torino last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Torino 2-1 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Torino?
Torino have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 60%, Torino 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Hellas Verona) and 37% (Torino).
On the defensive side: Torino in 31%; Torino in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Torino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 49% of Torino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hellas Verona vs Torino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Hellas Verona's recent games and 37% of Torino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hellas Verona and Torino tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Torino in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Torino defy the odds to beat Hellas Verona 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Torino beat Hellas Verona 1-2 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.29 xG and Torino 1.16 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Torino outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.92 / defence 1.07 against Torino attack 0.92 / defence 1.02, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 38% | Draw 29% | Torino 32%, with Hellas Verona to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Torino win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 42%, Torino 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (73 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Torino's trading profile (73 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Torino arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.93. Form held, and they took the win. Torino (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.