Hellas Verona 1-2 Salernitana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hellas Verona at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hellas Verona vs Salernitana encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi plays host to Hellas Verona versus Salernitana in Serie A, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Sunday 9 January 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Hellas Verona (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi, Hellas Verona have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Salernitana have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Salernitana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Salernitana have gone 1W 1D 7L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.44 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Hellas Verona. A 1.10 PPG lead over Salernitana (1.50 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hellas Verona lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Hellas Verona goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 28% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Salernitana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 61% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 78% versus Salernitana 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 67% | Salernitana 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.95 xG and Salernitana 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 1.101 / defence 0.978 | Salernitana attack 0.520 / defence 1.514. League average goals — home 1.172 / away 1.561. Salernitana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.514 — this is suppressing Hellas Verona's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Hellas Verona games / 18 Salernitana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 65% | Draw 21% | Salernitana 14%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 1.54 | Draw 4.76 | Salernitana 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Hellas Verona (65%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hellas Verona are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Hellas Verona 80% | Salernitana 44% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Salernitana | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Jan 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 65% | Draw 21% | Salernitana 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 47% | xG Hellas Verona 1.95 / Salernitana 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 1.101 / def 0.978 | Salernitana attack 0.520 / def 1.514 | league avg home 1.172 / away 1.561 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Salernitana xG
47%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Salernitana kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Salernitana kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 9 January 2022 at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Salernitana?
Hellas Verona 1 - 2 Salernitana.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Salernitana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Salernitana part of?
Hellas Verona vs Salernitana is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Salernitana?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 65% chance of winning, Salernitana a 14% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Salernitana?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Hellas Verona and Salernitana will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Salernitana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Salernitana?
Record (1 meetings): Hellas Verona 0W | Draws 1 | Salernitana 0W.
What form are Hellas Verona and Salernitana in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Salernitana (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hellas Verona's attack rating (1.10) and Salernitana's defence rating (1.51), the model arrives at 1.95 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Salernitana's attack (0.52x) against Hellas Verona's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 20/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.2%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
65%
1.55
21%
4.76
14%
6.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.75
0.79
Salernitana xG
1.55
65%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
6.95
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
14%
7.06
Win to Nil
29%
3.42
2%
49.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 9.9 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.0 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Salernitana?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Salernitana expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 0.79 for Salernitana, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Salernitana?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hellas Verona's recent record stands at 7W 6D 5L from 18 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Salernitana, meanwhile, have gone 2W 2D 14L across 18 games — 0.44 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Salernitana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hellas Verona by 1.06 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Salernitana heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Hellas Verona have managed 5W 2D 1L from 8 games — 2.12 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Hellas Verona are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Salernitana's away record stands at 1W 1D 6L across 8 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hellas Verona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hellas Verona are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Salernitana are on 0.61 scored and 2.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hellas Verona have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games.
Last 18 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Blended
Salernitana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Salernitana in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 7W 6D 5L in their last 18 games (1.50 PPG), while Salernitana have gone 2W 2D 14L in their last 18 (0.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Salernitana away?
Hellas Verona's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 2.12 PPG; Salernitana away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hellas Verona have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Salernitana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Hellas Verona
1
Draws
3
Salernitana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Salernitana?
From 6 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 2, Salernitana have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Salernitana last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2024, when Salernitana 1-2 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Salernitana?
Salernitana have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 75%, Salernitana 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Hellas Verona and 62% for Salernitana. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Salernitana in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Salernitana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Salernitana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Hellas Verona's games and 38% of Salernitana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hellas Verona vs Salernitana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Hellas Verona's matches and 62% of Salernitana's.
Do Hellas Verona and Salernitana tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Salernitana in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Salernitana defy the odds to beat Hellas Verona 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salernitana beat Hellas Verona 1-2 at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.95 xG and Salernitana 0.79 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Hellas Verona fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Salernitana outscored their 0.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 1.10 / defence 0.98 against Salernitana attack 0.52 / defence 1.51, drawn from 20/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 65% | Draw 21% | Salernitana 14%, with Hellas Verona to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a Salernitana win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 67%, Salernitana 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Salernitana's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hellas Verona arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.44. Form was overturned, with Salernitana winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Salernitana (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.