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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Hellas Verona and Juventus share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hellas Verona and Juventus finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 0.82 xG and Juventus 1.05 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.76 / defence 0.95 against Juventus attack 1.04 / defence 0.89, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 28% | Draw 32% | Juventus 40%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 46%, Juventus 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hellas Verona's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Juventus's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights